Election 2016

Exploring the data behind the races.

You've heard from the candidates—but what does the data say? Join us as we explore the data stories behind all things elections. Several of these vizzes are by you, our talented community. Tweet us your #ElectionViz, and do check back as we'll continue to update our curated gallery.

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Start with these noteworthy vizzes, then explore the entire collection below.

What can we expect on election night?

Andrew Hoagland and Mike Cisneros visualized minute-by-minute expected returns based on their prediction model. According to this viz, Donald Trump will take an early lead, then Hillary will catch up for a few tense hours leading up to a winner just before midnight EST.

Which party is likely to win control of the Senate?

This model by the same duo predicts the outcomes of 34 Senate races. In the nine most hotly-contested races, this model predicts three Republican wins. At the national stage, the Democrats have a higher chance of gaining control of the Senate.

Counting the electoral votes

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House. And as this viz by Adam Crahen shows, the odds are in Hillary Clinton's favor. Donald Trump still has a stronghold in a number of states including Kentucky, Texas, and Oklahoma. But in states like Georgia and Arizona, Clinton is closing in, according to the polls.

Daily poll numbers: How the candidates stack up

What do the polls say? It depends on which source you ask, and on which day. As this mobile-friendly viz shows, polls vary widely even on the same day and don't always favor the same candidate. On Sept. 21, for example, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll favored Clinton by six points while the LA Times/USC Tracking poll favored Trump by four points. (Side note: Adam used Tableau's new Google Sheets connector to build this poll tracker, which refreshes daily.)

Candidate support by gender, age, jobs

More women support Hillary Clinton while more men support Donald Trump, according to a PayScale survey of more than 102,000 respondents. Women in all but one age group favor Clinton while men are split between the candidates. Among women, support for Clinton rises with the income bracket. Among men, the opposite is true for Trump.

How are battleground states are likely to vote?

How will battleground states swing come Election Day? Andrew Hoagland and Mike Cisneros looked back at past performances of pollsters to create this prediction model based on more than 20,000 simulations. Check out the cartogram on the left, which shows states sized to reflect the number of electoral votes at stake. According to this model, Pennsylvania and Florida are leaning Democrat while Ohio is leaning Republican.

Which candidate are newspapers endorsing?

When it comes to newspaper endorsements, Hillary Clinton is in the lead. No paper has yet to endorse Donald Trump. And some papers that have historically endorsed Republican candidates have changed their stance this year. And USA Today, which has never before weighed in on an election, has endorsed Clinton.

Newspaper endorsements over the years

Here's a different look at the same data by Steve Fenn. Back in 1980, more newspapers endorsed the Republican candidate Ronald Reagan. And in 1992, Bill Clinton, the Democratic candidate, won more endorsements. Then in 2000, the favor shifted back to the GOP candidate, George W. Bush. And since then, Democrats have earned more endorsements.

The presidential candidates’ betting odds

Evince Analytics visualized betting-odds data from oddschecker.com to track the candidates’ chances of winning over time. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton saw spikes following their respective party’s convention. After the first presidential debate, it was Clinton who saw a boost.

The Trump effect on the Tonight Show

Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, President Barack Obama, Ted Cruz, and Bernie Sanders have all appeared on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon. And for every person, the most-watched Tonight Show video on YouTube included some focus on Trump. (In the case of Trump, he interviewed himself, played by Fallon, in the mirror. Several others had phone calls with Trump, also played by Fallon.) Joey Silva scraped a year's worth of data from the show's YouTube channel to create this viz. Click on the data points to watch the corresponding YouTube video in the viz.

How they talk the talk

Which candidate is easier to understand? Depends what they're talking about, according to an analysis of their speeches using the Flesch-Kincaid readability test. When they talk about economic policy, Trump talks at a tenth-grade reading level while Clinton talks at an eighth-grade reading level. But when they talk about foreign policy, they're both at an eighth-grade level.

See who gave to whom

Which campaign did your boss contribute to? Your neighbor? This searchable dashboard looks to FEC data for the answers. You can search by name, city, and state.

The growing political divide

In recent years, the political divide between Democrats and Republicans has doubled, as this viz by Robert Rouse shows. Robert visualized the Pew Research Center's survey data, which shows members of both parties moved away from center in recent years. Click on #2 to compute your own ideological score and see how you stack up against the survey respondents.

Rift in Senate now greater than ever

It's not just the general public that's become more polarized, says Hamid Hajebian. The ideology gap between US senators across the aisle has steadily grown to double its size since the Truman administration. And productivity appears to be diminishing as a result. From 2011 to 2012, the Senate passed just 10 percent of the bills introduced compared to 52% from 1947 to 1948.

Media mentions of Trump on Twitter

How and how much has mainstream media covered Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? This viz looks at tweets from five major broadcast networks for one month (Aug. 1 to Sept. 1). During that time, the networks sent 966 more tweets about Trump.

Candidate mentions in domestic media headlines

An analysis of news headlines of five news networks shows Donald Trump has gotten more than twice the mentions of his opponent. All five networks used negative and neutral language about both candidates, but none used positive language about both.

Candidate mentions in foreign media headlines

An analysis of news headlines of three media outlets in Spain and France also shows Donald Trump has gotten more than twice the mentions of his opponent. Most of the headlines were neutral in sentiment. Some were negative, but none were positive.

How past presidential elections fared

There have been several landslide presidential elections in US history, as this viz by Filippo Mastroianni shows. In 1936, FDR carried 46 states, and in 1944, LBJ carred 44 states. Both Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan carried 49 states, in 1972 and 1984, respectively.

How past presidents' approval ratings changed over time

When the going gets tough, presidential approval ratings drop, says Dustin Cabral. "Most presidents start with high approval ratings; however, the majority drop significantly by the time they leave office," he says. The data shows this downward pattern for almost every president since 1941 (Bill Clinton is the lone exception). But while some presidents' ratings bounce back up over time, others never recover from their initial decline. Check out Harry S. Truman, who started with the highest approval rating on the chart(91%), then dipped to the lowest (22%).

Our past presidents by the numbers

Over the years, more Republicans have held the Oval office than Democrats. Eleven presidents, including President Abraham Lincoln, did not attend college. And the most common term length is four years, though eight presidents have served shorter terms. Explore the historical numbers in this viz by Rody Zakovich.

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